Football Upset Watch: NFL Week 6 + College Week 7

Football Upset Watch: NFL Week 6 + College Week 7

October 15, 2015 – by Seth Trachtman

Two of the eight possible upsets we called out last week happened (Browns over Ravens in the NFL, and Tennessee over Georgia in college football), and two more came oh-so-close.

When the dust settled, two upsets was a bit lower than we expected (2.6), but after 14 games we’ve already opened a big lead over the public in terms accurately predicting the total number of upsets that would happen.

This week we’re highlighting eight more games across NFL Week 6 and college football Week 7.

Upset Tracking Scoreboard

Games highlighted so far: 14Upsets the public picked: 1.13Upsets we expected: 4.6Upsets that happened: 4

(Note: All expectation numbers listed above are based on the numbers we publish in our upset watch blog posts.)

In addition to the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Volunteers, several of our highlighted teams last week just about pulled off big shockers:

Kansas State led TCU 35-17 at halftime as an 8.5 point Vegas underdog, and held the lead until there were only six minutes left in the gameThe Washington Redskins pushed the Falcons to overtime, only to drive 30 years then throw a pick-six and lose

Only 7% of the public had picked the Browns over the Ravens, while only 10% picked Tennessee to beat Georgia. With Baltimore’s injuries at wide receiver and a pretty lucky win over Pittsburgh the previous week, it was somewhat surprising the public wasn’t more supportive of Cleveland.

Coming off a blowout loss vs. Alabama, the public also remained confident in Georgia vs. a 2-3 Tennessee squad on the road, but the numbers pointed to the Vols being a significantly stronger team than their win-loss record so far implied.

About Our Upset Watch Column

Rather than just present the most likely upsets to happen (you can find those on our premium NFL most likely upsets and college football most likely upsets pages), what we do in this column is highlight a series of games that generally meet two criteria:

The underdog is being almost criminally underrated by the general public, based on public picking estimates from our Football Pick’em Picks productThe teams playing are generally of high interest to lots of fans (mainly applies to college football)

What that means is that we still expect each of the individual teams we highlight in this column to lose (i.e. they all have under 50% win odds). But as a group, if a few of the following teams end up winning, that would qualify as a huge surprise according to the public’s expectations — but not to us.

Important note: All pick odds and betting lines quoted in this post were accurate as of 10/14, and may have changed since then.

NFL Upset Watch: Week 6 Games

Cleveland (home) over Denver

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Cleveland	vs. Denver	DEN by 4.0	34.8%	10.0%

Denver sits undefeated at 5-0, but they haven’t done it the easy way. Four of their wins have been by one touchdown or less, and their offense continues to struggle compared to recent seasons. Cleveland is coming off a surprising win at Baltimore, and may have found a passing game with Josh McCown at quarterback. He’s thrown for at least 300 yards in three consecutive games and has a 67.8% completion rate. Yet only 1 in 10 people is picking Cleveland to win.

Cleveland at Denver Matchup

New Orleans (home) over Atlanta

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
New Orleans	vs. Atlanta	ATL by 3.5	35.5%	14.0%

Atlanta barely squeaked out a victory, in overtime, at home vs. Washington last week. Now they head to New Orleans on a short week with star wideout Julio Jones apparently gimpy with hamstring issues. Public perception vs. objective numbers is a big factor here. The Saints are probably better than their lowly 1-4 record implies; they got blown out in Philadelphia last week, but we also think the Eagles are better than most people think. On the other hand, the Falcons have built their 5-0 mark against a weak schedule, including two come-from-behind wins.

Atlanta at New Orleans Matchup

San Diego (away) over Green Bay

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
San Diego	at Green Bay	GB by 10.0	23.0%	2.0%

This would make for the upset of the week, with the Chargers currently a 10-point underdog in Vegas. The Packers have seemed almost unstoppable at home, going undefeated at Lambeau Field since the beginning of last season. But that streak needs to come to an end at some point. Aaron Rodgers finally looked human last week, throwing two interceptions vs. the Rams. San Diego is coming off a tough loss, but their offense also got a spark with the return of Antonio Gates.

San Diego at Green Bay Matchup

Indianapolis (home) over New England

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Indianapolis	vs. New England	NE by 7.5	24.0%	6.0%

New England has been the NFL’s most dominant team again this season, and are coming off of two blowout wins. However, their defense has looked beatable at times, especially on the road vs. Buffalo in Week 2 when they allowed 32 points. The Colts, second to last in the NFL in turnover margin at -1.4 per game, may get Andrew Luck back after two games sidelined with a shoulder injury, and have turned around their early struggles with a three-game win streak.

New England at Indianapolis Matchup

College Football Upset Watch: Week 7 Games

USC (away) over Notre Dame

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
USC	at Notre Dame	ND by 6.5	32.8%	6.0%

It’s been an eventful past week for the USC Trojans, with head coach Steve Sarkisian’s dismissal and a surprising loss last Thursday to Washington. And just when you think things can’t get worse, they have to travel to South Bend to face the 5-1 Fighting Irish, No. 9 in our power rankings. However, Notre Dame has yet to beat a team currently ranked in our top 20, and it’s easy to imagine the public overreacting to all the recent news. In 2013, also after a mid-season head coaching change, USC upset highly ranked Stanford.

USC at Notre Dame Matchup

Louisville (away) over Florida State

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Louisville	at Florida St	FSU by 7.0	27.0%	2.0%

Louisville’s record is only 2-3, but their three losses were each by one touchdown or less. They’re coming off back-to-back wins, including a strong win on the road vs. NC State last week. Before those wins, they gave Clemson all they could handle in a three point loss. Florida State is undefeated, but has won by less than expected in each of the past two weeks, against Wake Forest and Miami.

Louisville at Florida State Matchup

Arizona State (away) over Utah

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Arizona St	at Utah	UTAH by 7.0	25.9%	3.0%

Arizona State is coming off of two straight wins, including on the road vs. UCLA in Week 5, and their two losses to date came against Texas A&M and USC, both in the top 15 of our predictive rankings. Utah has received first place votes in the AP Poll, but even with the help of five interceptions, they still didn’t beat California by as much as expected last week. The Utes are clearly a strong team, but especially if ASU is on an upswing, they’ve got a shot.

Arizona State at Utah Matchup

Memphis (home) over Ole Miss

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Memphis	vs. Ole Miss	MISS by 10.5	23.6%	2.0%

Memphis sits undefeated against a very easy schedule, with no victories against a team in our current top 50. Usually the public would be over-estimating a team like that, but Ole Miss’s Week 3 victory over Alabama doesn’t fade quickly in the public mind. Memphis’s offense has scored at least 44 points in four of their five games, while most recently Ole Miss beat Vanderbilt by only 11 points at home, and lost by 28 points to Florida. In terms of motivation, this is also the game of the year for Memphis to prove itself and win huge local bragging rights.

Ole Miss at Memphis Matchup

If you liked this post, please share it. Thank you! Twitter Facebook