Search
Close this search box.

Football Upset Watch: NFL Week 4 + College Week 5

Football Upset Watch: NFL Week 4 + College Week 5

October 3, 2015 – by Seth Trachtman

This weekend features some great NFL and college football matchups — and, as always, the opportunity for some thrilling upsets.

Here’s a quick rundown of some intriguing upset possibilities for the weekend, based on our algorithmic game winner odds.

Rather than just present the most likely upsets to happen (you can find those on our premium NFL most likely upsets and college football most likely upsets pages), what we do in this column is highlight some games that generally meet two criteria:

The underdog is being almost criminally underrated by the general public, based on public picking estimates from our Football Pick’em Picks productThe teams playing are generally of high interest to lots of fans (mainly referring to college football here)

What that means is that we still expect each of the individual teams we highlight in this column to lose (e.g. they all have under 50% win odds). But as a group, if a couple of the following six teams end up winning, that would qualify as a huge surprise according to the public’s expectations — but not according to us.

Important note: All pick odds and betting lines quoted in this post were accurate as of 10/2, and may have changed since then.

NFL Upset Watch: Week 4 Games

Tampa Bay (vs. Carolina)

Underdog Favorite Point Spread Upset Odds Public Pick
Tampa Bay vs. Carolina CAR by 3 41.7% 8.0%

The public is hesitant to pick against the Panthers with a 3-0 record, but Carolina’s opponents (Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans) are a combined 1-8 this season. The Panthers also will be without defensive centerpiece Luke Kuechly again on Sunday.

Carolina at Tampa Bay Matchup

Houston (@ Atlanta)

Underdog Favorite Point Spread Upset Odds Public Pick
Houston at Atlanta ATL by 6.5 32.0% 4.0%

As expected, the public pick percentage is extremely in favor of Atlanta given these teams’s respective records, but Atlanta is only four spots ahead of Houston in our margin-of-victory driven NFL predictive rankings. Houston is coming off their first win of the season, and are hoping for Arian Foster’s return on Sunday to give them a boost.

Houston at Atlanta Matchup

St. Louis (@ Arizona)

Underdog Favorite Point Spread Upset Odds Public Pick
St. Louis at Arizona ARI by 7 29.9% 3.0%

The Rams offense has been nothing short of inept the last two weeks and ranks dead last in total yards, while Arizona dominated San Francisco 47-7 last week. That recency bias seems to be causing the public to overlook the fact that the Rams have a strong defense, averaging fewer yards allowed per play (4.8) than the Cardinals (4.9).

St. Louis at Arizona Matchup

College Football Upset Watch: Week 5 Games

Florida (vs. Ole Miss)

Underdog Favorite Point Spread Upset Odds Public Pick
Florida vs. Ole Miss MISS by 7 31.5% 8.0%

Ole Miss is a 7-point favorite, and riding wave of accolades since beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa in Week 2. However, at home, the Rebels beat SEC doormat Vanderbilt last week by only 11 points, and they caught some luck in the Alabama game as well. Florida was lucky to escape with a win against Tennessee last week, and that perception could be causing the public to underrate their chances here.

Ole Miss at Florida Matchup

West Virginia (@ Oklahoma)

Underdog Favorite Point Spread Upset Odds Public Pick
West Virginia at Oklahoma OKLA by 6.5 34.2% 10.0%

Oklahoma only sits 0.6 points and three spots ahead of West Virginia in our college football predictive rankings, making the Sooners only about 4-point favorites with home-field advantage, according to the rankings. The public seems to be doubting an up and coming Mountaineers team that’s scored at least 40 points in each game thus far and demolished Maryland 45-6 last week.

West Virginia at Oklahoma Matchup

Minnesota (@ Northwestern)

Underdog Favorite Point Spread Upset Odds Public Pick
Minnesota at Northwestern NOR by 4.5 30.8% 5.0%

The Wildcats have come out on top in their two genius bowls, beating Stanford 16-6 in the season’s opening weekend and Duke 19-10 two weeks ago. Their calling card has been defense, but Minnesota has shown fine defense of their own. They held TCU to 23 points in the first week of the season and have won three consecutive games. The total on this one is 39.5, so it’s expected to be an old-fashioned Big Ten brawl.

Minnesota at Northwestern Matchup

If you liked this post, please share it. Thank you! Twitter Facebook

NFL Football Pool Picks NFL Survivor Pool Picks NCAA Bracket Picks College Bowl Pool Picks College Football Pool Picks NFL Picks NBA Picks MLB Picks College Football Picks College Basketball Picks NFL Predictions NBA Predictions MLB Predictions College Football Predictions College Basketball Predictions NFL Spread Picks NBA Spread Picks MLB Spread Picks College Football Spread Picks College Basketball Spread Picks NFL Rankings NBA Rankings MLB Rankings College Football Rankings College Basketball Rankings NFL Stats NBA Stats MLB Stats College Football Stats College Basketball Stats NFL Odds NBA Odds MLB Odds College Football Odds College Basketball Odds A product ofTeamRankings BlogAboutTeamJobsContact

© 2005-2024 Team Rankings, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Statistical data provided by Gracenote.

TeamRankings.com is not affiliated with the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA®) or March Madness Athletic Association, neither of which has supplied, reviewed, approved or endorsed the material on this site. TeamRankings.com is solely responsible for this site but makes no guarantee about the accuracy or completeness of the information herein.

Terms of ServicePrivacy Policy

Share the Post:

Related Posts