I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering €“ I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering €“ this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Saints vs. Panthers.
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NFL Betting Primer: Saints vs. Panthers
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers – Spread Line: CAR +3
The Saints were unable to cover the 3.5-point last week, despite a total implosion by Ryan Tannehill. I was suspect of how "good" they would be under Derek Carr and my fears were realized as they struggled in the red zone, converting on just one of their four red zone drives. They were unable to fully take advantage of how badly the Titans played, which makes me concerned about backing them as three-point road favorites.
However, the head coaching advantage is not as stark as it was last week. Especially considering Frank Reich’s track record of slow starts.
And the Panthers offense just looked downright dreadful versus the Falcons. 3.9 yards per play. 48.8 passer rating. 33% pressure rate versus a Falcons defense that has traditionally struggled to rush the passer.
New Orleans’ defense is far from elite €“ only a 20% pressure rate last week versus a bad Titans OL €“ but I can’t bet on this Panthers offense until I see dramatic improvement from blocking upfront. It’s by no coincidence that the Panthers have the fourth-lowest implied team total on the slate. I am not sure how the Panthers actually plan on moving the ball and sustaining drives, with not much changed in their outlook from last week aside from the fact they are at home and will likely be getting WR D.J. Chark back.
And although I am not high on Derek Carr, I feel better about backing him with the weapons he has at his disposal versus a secondary that will be without star cornerback, Jaycee Horn. Their secondary got destroyed when he missed time last season. And New Orleans’ play calling was encouraging. The Saints were sixth in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate in Week 1. Carr threw for over 305 yards.
Still, a potential lack of overall offensive fireworks €“ both teams hit the under in Week 1 – has me sniffing around for player prop unders. However, there are not a ton of passing/receiving lines currently up, so I’ll opt for backing the running game versus the Panthers.
Jamaal Williams had a volume-based RB1 role in Week 1. 18 carries and 2 catches for 53 yards. Just 45 rushing yards. But the volume was there for him to hit this number, especially with a 75% snap share.
The Titans’ run defense was an elite run-stuffing unit to avoid all last season, and they looked the part in Week 1. For Williams, he should benefit from an easy matchup in Week 2 versus the Panthers. Their defense allowed 5 yards per carry to the Falcons in Week 1.
- My picks: Saints -3 (-106 FanDuel Sportsbook), Under 40.0 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- My props: Jamaal Williams OVER 52.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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