Across the last 20 or so years, 42 conference championships have been played and over a third of them have been won by the team not favoured in the betting.
Jeffrey MayJeff_DiarioASUpdate: Jan 25th, 2024 05:33 EST
If the 2022 AFC Championship taught us anything, it is that the betting trends are far from a strong guide to what pans out. The Kansas City Chiefs were heavy favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals heading into that matchup last year, and yet Joe Burrow put on a stellar performance to make the Chiefs, only two years off a Super Bowl win, look like a high school team. What is intriguing is that this is nothing new to the NFL.
Since the 2002 campaign, 42 conference finals have been contested and 14 games have gone to the team not favoured by the bookies. The win ratio for the underdogs is 34%; that is to say, just over a third of the games.
Let’s remind ourselves of those matches that were won by the underdog:
The winning underdogs since 2002:
| SEASON | AFC | NFC |
|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Buccaneers | |
| 2003 | Panthers | |
| 2005 | Steelers | |
| 2007 | Giants | |
| 2008 | Cardinals | |
| 2011 | Giants | |
| 2012 | Ravens | |
| 2015 | Broncos | |
| 2017 | Eagles | |
| 2018 | Patriots | Rams |
| 2020 | Buccaneers | |
| 2021 | Bengals | |
| 2022 | Eagles |
NFC: a fertile territory for surprises
One of the patterns we note from this is that of the games won by underdogs, nine have come from the National Conference.
More importantly, of those clubs, the Giants and the Buccaneers have been crowned their league champions and doubled up. New York beat the Patriots in 2007 and 2011, while Tampa Bay did it in 2003 and 2020.
Another noteworthy fact is that the Eagles and Patriots have been stunned on more than one occasion by being beaten by an underdog. In Philadelphia’s case, they were beaten by Buccaneers and Panthers in consecutive years (2002, 2003) and New England in 2012 (Ravens) and 2015 (Broncos).
Championship Sunday is set! #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/rq4SaUnt7a
— NFL (@NFL) January 22, 2024
From underdog to favorite
It’s Chiefs against Ravens (Sunday January 28, with kick off at 3:00 p.m. ET 12:00 p.m. PT.) in the AFC matchup this year, and while the favourite may be the side led by Lamar Jackson, history certainly says another.
Over in the NFC matchup, the 49ers face the Lions (Sunday January 28, with kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT.) in a game that has lashings of underdog sauce all over it, with Dan Campbell’s side seeking their first-ever Super Bowl appearance against the team has paved the way in NFL for the last few years.
