LA Dodgers vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds & Starting Pitchers for Friday (July 26)
by Brady Trettenero in MLB Baseball
Updated Jul 26, 2024 · 11:46 AM PDT
Jul 19, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Gavin Stone (35) delivers to the plate in the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY SportsWe’ve made our Dodgers vs Astros prediction for Friday’s MLB heavyweight clashThe Friday MLB odds favor Houston, while LA is an intriguing road underdogRead below for Dodgers vs Astros prediction, odds and starting pitchers Gavin Stone and Framber Valdez for July 26th
The Los Angeles Dodgers (62-42) and Houston Astros (53-49) are set to reignite their rivalry in a heavyweight clash at Minute Maid Park on Friday night. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 PM ET, with the game broadcast on Apple TV+.
Oddsmakers are favoring the home team, setting Houston as -125 moneyline favorite at their home field. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Here is our Dodgers vs Astros prediction for Friday, along with MLB betting odds and starting pitchers breakdown.
Dodgers vs Astros Prediction
This matchup has all the makings of a playoff preview. The Dodgers have been on a tear since the All-Star break, winning six of their last seven. They made light work of the Red Sox, sweeping the three-game series, and took two of three from the pesky Giants. The Dodgers lead the league in runs scored (516) and rank third in home runs (141).
On the other side, the Astros have been a bit up and down. They took care of business against the Mariners, winning two of three, but then stumbled against the lowly Athletics, dropping two of three. Still, they’ve been solid at home, going 28-21 at Minute Maid. The Astros rank 10th in runs scored (478) and 9th in home runs (117).
The Dodgers have feasted on left-handed pitching this year, going 26-11 against southpaw starters. They boast a league-best 122 wRC+ against lefties, though that’s fallen to 87 over the last month. Houston, meanwhile, has been middle-of-the-pack against righties over the last month with a 102 wRC+.
I’m rolling with the Dodgers here. They have the edge in the pitching matchup (more on that later), and their bats are due to break out against a lefty after a quiet month. The +105 moneyline is tempting, but I also like the Dodgers +1.5 at -200 as an addition to same-game parlays.
Friday Night Baseball Pick:
Dodgers ML (+105)
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Dodgers vs Astros Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | +105 | +1.5 (-200) | Over 8.5 (-105) |
| Astros | -125 | -1.5 (+160) | Under 8.5 (-125) |
The Astros are slight -125 favorites, implying a 55.6% win probability. The Dodgers are +105 underdogs, indicating a 48.8% shot at victory. For me, those odds are backward. The Dodgers have been the better team lately and have the advantage on the mound.
The total of 8.5 feels spot on. These are two potent offenses, but the pitching matchup suggests a lower-scoring affair. The Dodgers have seen the under hit in four of Stone’s last five starts. I lean under, but it’s a tentative lean.
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Odds as of July 26, 2024 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the best MLB betting apps for Friday Night Baseball.
Dodgers vs Astros Starting Pitchers
Gavin Stone has been a revelation for the Dodgers this year. The 24-year-old righty boasts a 3.19 ERA and impressive underlying metrics. He ranks in the 81st percentile in hard-hit rate and 89th in barrel rate. Stone also misses bats, evidenced by his 11.1% swinging strike rate and 31.8% chase rate.
StoneVSValdez
| 9-3 | Record | 8-5 |
| 3.19 | ERA | 3.63 |
| 4.03 | xFIP | OFF |
| 1.23 | WHIP | 1.28 |
| 2.82 | K/BB | 2.44 |
Framber Valdez has been steady for the Astros, but there are some red flags. The lefty has a solid 3.63 ERA but concerning Statcast data. His 48.3% hard-hit rate is in the bottom 3% of the league. However, Valdez is an elite ground ball pitcher (60.5%, 4th in MLB), which could help him navigate the Dodgers’ dangerous lineup.
Stone’s strikeout prop is intriguing. His 7.0 K/9 and 11.1% swinging strike rate suggest he could rack up punchouts against an Astros team that strikes out at a 22.6% clip vs RHP over the last month.
Los Angeles vs Houston Injury Report
The Dodgers are missing some key pieces. 3B Max Muncy, SP Walker Buehler, SS Miguel Rojas, OF Mookie Betts, RP Ryan Brasier, and SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto are all sidelined. However, this is a deep roster that’s equipped to handle these losses.
Houston is without SP Luis Garcia, SP Justin Verlander, and SP Lance McCullers. Those are significant blows to the rotation that place more burden on Valdez and the bullpen.
Despite the injuries, I believe the Dodgers have the depth to compensate more effectively than the Astros. Stone’s presence mitigates the loss of Buehler and Yamamoto, while the Astros’ rotation takes a major hit without Garcia, Verlander, and McCullers.
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