New 2024 Presidential Election Odds Show Harris Favored Over Trump

Arizona U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly (from left), former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords, Vice President Kamala Harris, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Arizona Senate hopeful Ruben Gallego speak on Aug. 9, 2024, in Glendale.The updated 2024 presidential election odds favor Harris/Walz  over Trump/VanceTrump had been the betting favorite for the entire calendar year up to this pointSee the latest odds to win the 2024 election for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

A betting market that Donald Trump had been dominating for the better part of the last six months has been turned on its head in the last few weeks. Since incumbent Joe Biden dropped his re-election campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, the latter has been on a one-way trip to the top of the board, recently surpassing former President Trump as the betting favorite to win the White House on Tuesday, Nov. 5.

Updated 2024 Presidential Election Odds

Harris, who was still as long as +110 at this time last week, continued to rise up the board after naming Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running-mate.

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Odds as of August 11 at bet365. Check out the top political betting sites.

Trump’s Odds Sagging

In the wake of the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, Trump’s odds to win a second, non-consecutive term in the White House moved to a startling short -278, on average. At that point, aging incumbent Joe Biden was still in the race and looked intent on seeing through his re-election bid, for better or worse.

But since Biden’s stunning-yet-inevitable announcement that he was dropping his re-election campaign – and endorsing VP Harris in one fell swoop – Trump’s odds have been on a one-way train in the opposite direction. The day after Biden’s announcement, Trump faded to -200 in the 2024 election odds and, when all the Democratic ducks lined up behind Harris, he faded further to -188.

Over the last two weeks, he’s moved all the way to plus-money, currently sitting at +100.

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Harris Rise Supported by Polling Numbers

Kamala Harris’ rise up the odds board isn’t just a response to betting handle. The most-up-to-date polling numbers show the current VEEP with a lead both nationally and in most of the key battleground states that will decide the 2024 presidential election.

Nate Silver’s most-recent polling averages showed Harris with a 2.5% lead nationally and at least a 1.3% lead in all of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

If she carries those three states, she’s all but guaranteed of an Electoral College victory. The interactive map at 270towin has 226 Electoral College votes solidly blue; adding Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin equals exactly 270 with Arizona (11 votes), Georgia (16 votes), and Nevada (6 votes) still in neutral territory.

Trump holds a slight lead in Georgia (46.0% to 45.1%) but Harris is ahead out west in both Arizona (44.6% to 44.0%) and Nevada (44.6% to 42.9%) in Silver’s latest polls.