Badgers Stunned, Pac-12 Playoff Hopes Rise — College Football Rankings & Projections Update

Badgers Stunned, Pac-12 Playoff Hopes Rise — College Football Rankings & Projections Update (2019)

October 21, 2019 – by Jason Lisk

Justin Herbert and the Oregon Ducks have a path to the CFB Playoffs with a few more upsets (Photo by Christopher Mast/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest college football rankings and season projections changes heading into Week 9 of the 2019 season.

The highlights are below, but remember to check out the latest updates to our full college football projected standings and win totals and college football power ratings.

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College Football Week 9 Ratings Updates

10 Biggest Ratings Increases for Week 9

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Total Wins Change	Result
76	Illinois	Big Ten	-3.8	4	4.8	1.4	W vs. Wisconsin 24-23
81	Ball State	MAC	-4.9	3.8	7.2	1.0	W vs. Toledo 52-14
38	Air Force	Mountain West	6.1	3.1	9.2	0.8	W at Hawaii 56-26
30	App State	Sun Belt	8.2	3.0	10.9	0.4	W vs. LA Monroe 52-7
96	Kansas	Big 12	-8.8	3.0	2.9	0.2	L at Texas 50-48
36	Navy	AAC	7.2	2.9	8.7	0.6	W vs. S Florida 35-3
60	UCLA	Pac-12	1.1	2.9	4.1	1.2	W at Stanford 34-16
29	Virginia	ACC	8.2	2.8	8.9	0.7	W vs. Duke 48-14
108	E Michigan	MAC	-11.9	2.7	6.7	1.1	W vs. W Michigan 34-27
94	Vanderbilt	SEC	-7.9	2.6	3.5	1.0	W vs. Missouri 21-14

Illinois pulled off the biggest upset in the Big Ten in many, many years when they beat Wisconsin on a last-second field goal 24-23. They closed as 28.5-point underdogs, and our ratings had Wisconsin as 37 points better on a neutral field. Since 1995, we have only one other record of a 4-touchdown underdog winning a Big Ten conference game — Illinois won as a 28-point dog at Michigan State back in 2006.

Ball State made a big jump in the MAC with a blowout win over Toledo, while Appalachian State continues to put up big results.

Vanderbilt shocked Missouri to move up, while Kansas nearly pulled off a big upset at Texas, only to come up short when the Longhorns got a field goal as time expired.

10 Biggest Ratings Decreases for Week 9

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Total Wins Change	Result
99	Toledo	MAC	-9.6	-3.9	6.8	-1.1	L at Ball State 52-14
5	Wisconsin	Big Ten	25.6	-3.7	9.7	-1.2	L at Illinois 24-23
49	Stanford	Pac-12	3.0	-3.3	5.3	-1.1	L vs. UCLA 34-16
57	Northwestern	Big Ten	1.4	-3.2	4.1	-0.6	L vs. Ohio State 52-3
80	Hawaii	Mountain West	-4.6	-3.1	7.9	-0.9	L vs. Air Force 56-26
25	Missouri	SEC	10.7	-3.1	7.8	-1.3	L at Vanderbilt 21-14
48	Duke	ACC	3.0	-2.9	6.2	-0.7	L at Virginia 48-14
22	Texas	Big 12	11.9	-2.8	8.0	-0.4	W vs. Kansas 50-48
41	Tulane	AAC	5.0	-2.7	7.5	-0.7	L at Memphis 47-17
19	Central FL	AAC	13.2	-2.4	9.1	-0.1	W vs. E Carolina 41-28

Stanford is really struggling with injuries, especially at quarterback, and were beaten by UCLA.

In the Big Ten, Northwestern was the latest victim for Ohio State, losing by 49 points. Wisconsin dropped out of the top 4 in predictive rating with the loss to Illinois.

The TR Top 25

Note: These are predictive ratings, driven by margins of victory and not a team’s win-loss resume so far. You can see the full 2019 college football power ratings here.

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	38.6
2	Alabama	SEC	31.2
3	Clemson	ACC	27.9
4	LSU	SEC	26.4
5	Wisconsin	Big Ten	25.6
6	Penn State	Big Ten	25.1
7	Oklahoma	Big 12	24.5
8	Georgia	SEC	23.6
9	Auburn	SEC	22.9
10	Oregon	Pac-12	20.2
11	Notre Dame	Independent I-A	20.2
12	Florida	SEC	18.2
13	Utah	Pac-12	17.8
14	Michigan	Big Ten	16.3
15	Washington	Pac-12	14.7
16	Iowa	Big Ten	13.5
17	USC	Pac-12	13.3
18	Texas A&M	SEC	13.2
19	Central FL	AAC	13.2
20	Michigan St	Big Ten	13.1
21	Iowa State	Big 12	13.0
22	Texas	Big 12	11.9
23	Memphis	AAC	10.9
24	Cincinnati	AAC	10.8
25	Missouri	SEC	10.7

The difference between Ohio State and the rest of the country continues to grow, as Alabama is the only team within 10 points of them on a neutral field in our ratings. Clemson moved back to No. 3 with their 45-10 win over Louisville, combined with Wisconsin’s loss.

Baylor just misses out on the Top 25 in our predictive ratings, but are undefeated. Other teams that are in the AP Top 25 and are outside our rankings include undefeated SMU (No. 33), Minnesota (No. 32), Appalachian State (No. 30), Boise State (No. 31), Arizona State (No. 44), and Wake Forest (No. 53).

CFB Week 9 Projections Updates

Top Three Conference Championship Odds for Each Conference

Conference	1st Favorite	Odds to Win	2nd Favorite	Odds to Win	3rd Favorite	Odds to Win
ACC	Clemson	92%	Virginia	6%	No Carolina	1%
Big 12	Oklahoma	75%	Baylor	13%	Iowa State	6%
Big Ten	Ohio State	74%	Wisconsin	17%	Penn State	8%
Pac 12	Oregon	59%	Utah	24%	USC	16%
SEC	Alabama	49%	Georgia	20%	LSU	17%
AAC	Cincinnati	46%	Memphis	21%	SMU	13%
C USA	La Tech	27%	Fla Atlantic	24%	Marshall	16%
MAC	Ball State	40%	Ohio	24%	Western Michigan	12%
MWC	Boise State	55%	San Diego St	13%	Utah State	10%
Sun Belt	Appalachian St	57%	La Lafayette	41%	Georgia St	1%

Texas dropped out of the top three in the Big 12 in terms of title odds, after a close call at home against Kansas. We now have them as a slight underdog at both Baylor and Iowa State in November.

Oregon solidified their Pac-12 North chances with the win at Washington.

Boise State lost their first game, at home to BYU, but it was out of conference, and they remain the Mountain West favorites.

There was a big shakeup in Conference USA with Marshall’s road win at Florida Atlantic. Louisiana Tech is now the favorite to win the conference, while Marshall is very much in the mix.

Ball State is now the favorite in the wide-open MAC after their big victory at Toledo, combined with Western Michigan getting upset at Eastern Michigan.

Biggest Increases in Odds of Going 6-6 or Better

While the bowl eligibility rules can be convoluted, and there is a possibility that a few schools could get into a bowl game with a losing record and have their eligibility decided by a variety of tiebreakers, generally you have to win six games to get an invite.

Here are the teams that have most improved their chances of getting to six wins with the results of the last week.

Rank	Team	Conference	Bowl Eligible	Bowl Eligible Change	Result
108	E Michigan	MAC	86%	35%	W vs. W Michigan 34-27
65	BYU	Independent I-A	91%	28%	W vs. Boise State 28-25
77	VA Tech	ACC	84%	23%	W vs. N Carolina 43-41
81	Ball State	MAC	92%	23%	W vs. Toledo 52-14
86	Marshall	CUSA	93%	20%	W at Fla Atlantic 36-31
46	Kansas St	Big 12	85%	20%	W vs. TX Christian 24-17
35	Indiana	Big Ten	95%	18%	W at Maryland 34-28
76	Illinois	Big Ten	18%	18%	W vs. Wisconsin 24-23
73	Boston Col	ACC	31%	17%	W vs. NC State 45-24
28	Wash State	Pac-12	89%	17%	W vs. Colorado 41-10

Illinois’ chances of getting to 6-6 were less than 1% before the Wisconsin win. Now, a bowl game is at least in the realm of possibility. Indiana, meanwhile, got a big road win at Maryland and looks like they will be playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2016 (the last time the Hoosiers finished a year with a winning record was back in 2007).

Kansas State won a big swing game in the Big 12 against TCU, while Virginia Tech won a wild 6-OT game over North Carolina to move to 5 wins on the season.

Odds of Going 11-1 or Better in Regular Season

While factors like schedule strength and particular matchups certainly play a role, one of the best indicators of being in the running for the College Football Playoff is being a Power Five Conference team that goes 11-1 or better. No team that has been 10-2 or worse before conference championship games has finished in the Top 4 in the CFP rankings yet.

For those schools outside the Power Five, being able to get to 11 wins gives you a sense of who might get invited to one of the top BCS bowl games to play against the big boys.

Rank	Team	Conference	1 or 0 Losses
3	Clemson	ACC	99%
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	96%
2	Alabama	SEC	85%
7	Oklahoma	Big 12	84%
30	App State	Sun Belt	72%
4	LSU	SEC	67%
6	Penn State	Big Ten	61%
31	Boise State	Mountain West	44%
10	Oregon	Pac-12	40%
13	Utah	Pac-12	36%
26	Baylor	Big 12	33%
11	Notre Dame	Independent I-A	32%
33	S Methodist	AAC	30%
24	Cincinnati	AAC	29%
8	Georgia	SEC	22%
23	Memphis	AAC	22%
12	Florida	SEC	21%

Wisconsin’s loss to Illinois opens up the CFB Playoff picture and makes a second Big Ten participant unlikely. That result, combined with the Georgia loss a week earlier, also means the Pac-12 has a puncher’s chance of getting a team selected. Oregon won a big game at Washington while Utah crushed Colorado.

November 2nd sets up as a huge day in the Pac-12, for the conference’s outside hopes of crashing the CFB Playoff party. On that day, Oregon travels to USC and Utah plays at Washington. Right now, we give Oregon a 40% of winning out, and Utah a 36% chance of doing the same, and those are the biggest single hurdles for each. The Pac-12 teams still likely need at least one more upset of Oklahoma or Clemson to get into the conversation, but the opportunity is there.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy college football Week 9, and if you’re in a pick’em contest or planning on betting some of the Week 9 games, please check out our Football Pick’em Picks and College Football Betting Picks.

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